Survey of Pakistan Elections 2013 - INCPak

INCPak keeping its promise with the people, being the voice the people bringing you the latest survey of Pakistan Elections report updated March / April 2013 for upcoming Quantitative Report with detailed figures, because we believe it is your right to know !

Consumers Insights into Electoral choices March- April 2013

Agenda

research objectives
research design
geographical coverage
sample design
summary of the findings
detailed findings
Overall

Research Objectives:

Ascertain the choice of vote of target audience in upcoming elections.
Gauge the perceptions of people about different political parties

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:

The quantitative research technique of door to door survey was used to obtain the requisite information.
Punjab, KPK and Karachi was divided into 6 regions based on their geographical/
population wise segmentation.
In order to include maximum representation of Districts, the targeted areas in
regions were selected on random basis.
To examine the data analytically, the sample was further sub-divided into Gender,
Age group, Socio Economic Class and Rural/Urban split.
Agency developed the questionnaire to include a representative sample in this study.
Proper training was given to the interviewers through briefing/mock sessions. The successful/backup interviewers were selected from that pool.
The questionnaire was pre-tested prior to its induction for the fieldwork. A minimum number (10) of
questionnaires were pre-tested to check for comprehension and flow.
A team of experienced interviewers conducted interviews at households (Door-to-door survey) only. The interviews with the target respondents using a structured questionnaire in Urdu.Interviews were conducted with those respondents only who were willing to poll their vote in upcoming elections.
To ensure the data authenticity, strict field controls were used during the fieldwork of this study.

Customized computer checks were also incorporated during data entry process and at least 5% randomly
selected questionnaires were double punched to ensure data accuracy

Target RESPONDENT:

DETERMINING THE SAMPLE SIZE:

A door to door survey was conducted in Punjab, KPK and Karachi from March 27 to April 05, 2013 among 3,471 respondents, belonging to SEC A, B, C, D and E households in the targeted regions of Pakistan while maintaining the quota of Gender, Age group and Urban/Rural population.
Punjab, KPK and Karachi was divided into 6 regions based on their Geographical/
Population wise segmentation. Those regions were further divided into 13 areas based on their weighted population. The sample was through random selection of Tehsils in each area. The randomly selected Tehsils were further bifurcated into rural and urban vicinities.
For each targeted area in the region (from which the sample was drawn), sample size was determined at 95% confidence interval with 5.78% margin of error. The proposed sample per areas was 289.

SAMPLE SPLIT :

SNAPSHOT – POLITICAL POLL:

With reference to choice of political party in upcoming elections, on an overall basis, a majority of the respondents equally preferred to vote for PML (N) and PTI (38% each). The growth of popularity of PTI has increased by 50% in Punjab (mainly in Seraiki belt and Pothohar belt); however, in rest of Punjab areas, PML (N) is still the most popular choice for vote in upcoming elections. It is worthwhile to note that, PTI is the most popular party to vote for in both KPK and Hazara Belt as compared to PML (N).
On an overall basis, with respect to most popular leader, Imran Khan is ahead of Nawaz Sharif with a margin of 3%.
The overall satisfaction with the performance of both the leading parties, namely PML (N) and PTI,is almost similar for that period.

CHOICE OF PARTY IN UPCOMING ELECTIONS :