Weather Forecast for Pakistan’s Monsoon Season

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has announced that the country can expect normal to above normal rainfall and nearly normal temperatures during this monsoon season.

Climate Indicators

The PMD states that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase and may shift towards La Niña by the end of the season. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain in a positive phase.

Rainfall Outlook

• Overall: Normal to above normal rainfall is expected across most of Pakistan.
• Upper Punjab and Lower Sindh: These regions will experience the most significant increase in rainfall.
• Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan: Rainfall is expected to be nearly normal.
• Balochistan: Slightly above normal rainfall is predicted.

Temperature Outlook

• Daytime Temperatures: Expected to be nearly normal nationwide.
• Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan: These areas may experience warmer than normal daytime temperatures.
• Nighttime Temperatures: Likely to be above normal across most regions, especially in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and southwestern Balochistan.

Impacts and Advice

• Snowmelt and River Flow: High temperatures in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir may increase snowmelt, raising river levels.
• Soil Moisture for Farmers: Recent weather has left fields with good soil moisture, but rising temperatures may dry them out before the monsoon starts. Farmers should irrigate their crops as needed.
• Temperatures: Daytime temperatures will be higher than normal at the start of the season but will normalize with the expected rains.
• Strong Winds and Dust Storms: These are likely throughout the season.

Flood Risks

• Riverine Floods: Heavy rains may cause floods in major river catchment areas.
• Flash and Urban Flooding: Possible in hill torrent areas of Koh-e-Suleman and the plains of major cities in Sindh, Punjab, AJK, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to heavy rainfall.

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